ragz4u
02-19 08:12 PM
I want to Thank everyone for turning up for today's meeting, it was a good discussion and I am glad that we got to know each other better.
I am summarizing the things that we discussed and the "Next Steps" that we agreed upon.
These ideas can be applied to any region so any of you guys reading this, feel free to implement them for your region.
This is what we are planning to do in the next few days:
Publicize ImmigrationVoice.org in any/all manner possible within the community to raise awareness about our problems and to persuade more people to join. i.e. place materials in grocery stores, temples, or in other high traffic areas
Always monitor the media for any shred of positive stories about legal immigrants and as we find them, send materials from IV.org to the specific reporter highlighting the problems that we are currenty facing.
Contact all of your respective Congressional representatives and request an In-person meeting in order for us to present our case. If meeting reqeust is denied take names of senior aides and send relevant materials and then follow up to check on progress as to what they are doing about it. Keep bugging them, that is the only way they will respond.
Spread the word to your friends who are still waiting to join us, ask them to contribute to the site or devote their time to this cause. I suggest each of us make a goal of sending an email to atleast 10 people in the next week.
Meet with other resources and networking groups that are sympathetic to our plight (i.e. Indian CEO's council, www.usinpac.com, Indian ambassadaor in DC etc.... ) and ask for their support.
One of the strategic point that was discussed was about the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill and I along with some of the other members am of the opinion that this bill is such a behemoth and contains some radical; provisions on illegal immigration which may eventually hurt it and it may even die.
Since some of the relief measure that we are seeking are part of this bill, if it dies we will be hurt as well. We think we need to work with Quinn-Gillespie to strategize about how we can insert (if possible) provisions related to legal immigration to a bill that has a very good chance of passing. i.e. the PACE bill by Senator Pete Domenici - we need to put pressure on him, flood his office with our emails/faxes and also at the same time talk to our lobbyists to insert our provisions in his bill as it is almost guaranteed to pass.
That is all from me for now. We plan to take action and meet again soon.
Anyone with other ideas, suggestions is welcome to post them and we can incorporate them as well.
Thanks Everybody for your support and time.
It is really encouraging to see regional teams take the initiative and continue the good work locally. Cataphract, thanks for updating us on the progress you guys have made. Feel free to email at info@immigrationvoice.org with any concerns you might have/support you need and we'll be glad to help you in any way possible.
Hopefully other teams will take a cue from this and get together for achieving our target.
I am summarizing the things that we discussed and the "Next Steps" that we agreed upon.
These ideas can be applied to any region so any of you guys reading this, feel free to implement them for your region.
This is what we are planning to do in the next few days:
Publicize ImmigrationVoice.org in any/all manner possible within the community to raise awareness about our problems and to persuade more people to join. i.e. place materials in grocery stores, temples, or in other high traffic areas
Always monitor the media for any shred of positive stories about legal immigrants and as we find them, send materials from IV.org to the specific reporter highlighting the problems that we are currenty facing.
Contact all of your respective Congressional representatives and request an In-person meeting in order for us to present our case. If meeting reqeust is denied take names of senior aides and send relevant materials and then follow up to check on progress as to what they are doing about it. Keep bugging them, that is the only way they will respond.
Spread the word to your friends who are still waiting to join us, ask them to contribute to the site or devote their time to this cause. I suggest each of us make a goal of sending an email to atleast 10 people in the next week.
Meet with other resources and networking groups that are sympathetic to our plight (i.e. Indian CEO's council, www.usinpac.com, Indian ambassadaor in DC etc.... ) and ask for their support.
One of the strategic point that was discussed was about the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill and I along with some of the other members am of the opinion that this bill is such a behemoth and contains some radical; provisions on illegal immigration which may eventually hurt it and it may even die.
Since some of the relief measure that we are seeking are part of this bill, if it dies we will be hurt as well. We think we need to work with Quinn-Gillespie to strategize about how we can insert (if possible) provisions related to legal immigration to a bill that has a very good chance of passing. i.e. the PACE bill by Senator Pete Domenici - we need to put pressure on him, flood his office with our emails/faxes and also at the same time talk to our lobbyists to insert our provisions in his bill as it is almost guaranteed to pass.
That is all from me for now. We plan to take action and meet again soon.
Anyone with other ideas, suggestions is welcome to post them and we can incorporate them as well.
Thanks Everybody for your support and time.
It is really encouraging to see regional teams take the initiative and continue the good work locally. Cataphract, thanks for updating us on the progress you guys have made. Feel free to email at info@immigrationvoice.org with any concerns you might have/support you need and we'll be glad to help you in any way possible.
Hopefully other teams will take a cue from this and get together for achieving our target.
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jsb
05-07 02:26 PM
I think if iam not wrong its not based of the priority date or anything else. Its just random
They are not random. The do have some logic.
At every center cases are filed in order they are received (at least that is what they claim). "Received" does not mean in order of RD you see on your receipt. It is when physically a center accepted your paper case, and decided to enter in the system. PD plays role only for casesfrom retrogressed countries (EB and FB, both). For majority of cases, it has no relevance. PD of cases is nowhere maintained in the system (at least until a case is looked at the first time, which is sometime referred to as "preadjudication"), except on your paper filing. When your file turns out to be next in que for adjudication, in order or receive date (as defined above), the IO has no idea about your PD. Physical file is processed and checked for docs (birth certificates, photos, etc. etc.), AND the PD. At this time you might see a LUD. If nothing further progresses (due to PD not being current) LUD remains a soft LUD, and your case is put aside. If by luck your file was seen when your PD was current, you get lucky and get a GC (and several hard LUDs). PD sequence and received date sequence have no relationship, that's why the whole process seems random.
They are not random. The do have some logic.
At every center cases are filed in order they are received (at least that is what they claim). "Received" does not mean in order of RD you see on your receipt. It is when physically a center accepted your paper case, and decided to enter in the system. PD plays role only for casesfrom retrogressed countries (EB and FB, both). For majority of cases, it has no relevance. PD of cases is nowhere maintained in the system (at least until a case is looked at the first time, which is sometime referred to as "preadjudication"), except on your paper filing. When your file turns out to be next in que for adjudication, in order or receive date (as defined above), the IO has no idea about your PD. Physical file is processed and checked for docs (birth certificates, photos, etc. etc.), AND the PD. At this time you might see a LUD. If nothing further progresses (due to PD not being current) LUD remains a soft LUD, and your case is put aside. If by luck your file was seen when your PD was current, you get lucky and get a GC (and several hard LUDs). PD sequence and received date sequence have no relationship, that's why the whole process seems random.
eb3retro
08-06 11:36 AM
Received an email from CRIS stating that Notice mailed welcoming the new permanent resident. Those who are tracking approval, check out IV profile/tracker.
congrats, ur online profile does not say if u r eb2 or 3 and whats ur PD ?
congrats, ur online profile does not say if u r eb2 or 3 and whats ur PD ?
2011 2010 Slam Dunk Wallpaper
tnite
09-26 04:05 PM
Hi All,
NSC received my I765 applications on June 21st. I am still waiting for my EAD. I have seen many people from NSC got their approval for the same time frame. Is there anypone in the same boat. Is this something I should be worried about.
Thanks!
See my signature for NSC timeline for my I485
NSC received my I765 applications on June 21st. I am still waiting for my EAD. I have seen many people from NSC got their approval for the same time frame. Is there anypone in the same boat. Is this something I should be worried about.
Thanks!
See my signature for NSC timeline for my I485
more...
dollar500
08-02 11:26 PM
So for EB3 india the visa bulletin is stuck at May 2001. I did some research and looked into what happed in 2001 about the dates
The reason is USCIS moved for nearly 2 years forward from JAN 2001 to June 2001. In July 2001 they made every thing current (isn't it kind of odd that in July 2007 they made everything current as well.)http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2001-07bulletin.html So I presume hundreds and thousands must have filed for their I 485s at that time. Curiously enough there are no visa bulletins from Aug 2001 to March 2002. But in Apr 2002 everybody is current. Surprisingly it stayed current until January 2005 when the retrogression hit again and they have to go back to Jan 2002.
We are now seeing the effects of all those applications. Does this make any sense. It's some interesting pattern but I am not completely able to analyze the situation. Any inputs??
The reason is USCIS moved for nearly 2 years forward from JAN 2001 to June 2001. In July 2001 they made every thing current (isn't it kind of odd that in July 2007 they made everything current as well.)http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2001-07bulletin.html So I presume hundreds and thousands must have filed for their I 485s at that time. Curiously enough there are no visa bulletins from Aug 2001 to March 2002. But in Apr 2002 everybody is current. Surprisingly it stayed current until January 2005 when the retrogression hit again and they have to go back to Jan 2002.
We are now seeing the effects of all those applications. Does this make any sense. It's some interesting pattern but I am not completely able to analyze the situation. Any inputs??
fide_champ
04-06 06:30 AM
Hello all,
Anyone knows if there is a certain length of time that I need to be employed with my GC sponsor after 485 approval?
I have heard 3-4 months, but I am wondering if there is legal time limit or if this is a "good faith" limit.
Appreciate responses.
The time limit is 6 months. But if 6 months have already elapsed after filing I485, then you are free to go anywhere.
Anyone knows if there is a certain length of time that I need to be employed with my GC sponsor after 485 approval?
I have heard 3-4 months, but I am wondering if there is legal time limit or if this is a "good faith" limit.
Appreciate responses.
The time limit is 6 months. But if 6 months have already elapsed after filing I485, then you are free to go anywhere.
more...
chanduv23
04-27 09:16 AM
Not sure how true this is but I got this email from my friend who is also an IV member.
Dear All,
Be Careful At the Indian Airports , This is a well organized conspiracy by Indian Immigration, Police, Customs and Air India staff with networking at all the Indian
International Airports. Be watchful when ever you give your passport to Immigration/ Customs/Air India staff. The pass port can be easily tampered and can create trouble to you. They have found easy way of making money from NRIs. This is the way it works:
At the time of the passenger's departure, if the passenger is not looking at the officer while he is stamping the exit, the officer very cleverly tears away one of the page from the passport. When the passenger leaves the immigration counter, the case is reported on his computer terminal with full details. Now all over India they have got full details of the passenger with Red Flag flashing on the Passport number entered by the departure immigration officer. They have made their money by doing above. On arrival next time, he is interrogated. Subject to the passenger's period of stay abroad, his income and standing etc., the price to get rid of the problem is settled by the Police and Immigration people. If someone argues, his future is spoiled because there are always some innocent fellows who think the honesty is the basis of getting justice in India ..
Please advise every passenger to be careful at the airport. Whenever they hand over the passport to the counters of Air India , or immigration or the customs, they must be vigilant, should not remove eyes from the passport even if the officer in front tries to divert their attention. Also, please pass this information to all friends, media men and important politicians. Every month 20-30 cases are happening all over India to rob the NRIs the minute he lands. Similar case has happened with Aramco's Arifuddin. He was travelling with his family. They had six passports. They got the visa of America and decided to go via Hyderabad from Jeddah. They reached Hyderabad. Stayed about a month and left for the States. When they reached the States, the page of the American visa on his wife's passport
was missing. At the time of departure from Hyderabad it was there, the whole family had to return to Hyderabad helplessly. On arrival at Bombay back, they were caught by the police and now it is over 2 months, they are running after the Police, Immigration officers and the Courts. On going in to details with him, he found out the following: One cannot imagine, neither can believe, that the Indian Immigration dept can play such a nasty game to harass the innocent passengers.
All the passengers travelling to & fro India via Bombay and Hyderabad must be aware of this conspiracy. Every month 15 to 20 cases are taking place, at each mentioned airport, of holding the passengers in the crime of tearing away the passport pages. On interviewing some of them, none of them was aware of what had happened. They don't know why, when and who tore away the page from the middle of the passport. One can imagine the sufferings of such people at the hands of the immigration, police and the court procedures in India after that. The number of cases is increasing in the last 2-3 years. People who are arriving at the immigration, they are questioned and their passports are being held and they have to go in interrogations. Obviously, the conspiracy started about 2 to 3 years ago, now the results are coming. Some of the Air India counter staff too is involved in this conspiracy.
Dear All,
Be Careful At the Indian Airports , This is a well organized conspiracy by Indian Immigration, Police, Customs and Air India staff with networking at all the Indian
International Airports. Be watchful when ever you give your passport to Immigration/ Customs/Air India staff. The pass port can be easily tampered and can create trouble to you. They have found easy way of making money from NRIs. This is the way it works:
At the time of the passenger's departure, if the passenger is not looking at the officer while he is stamping the exit, the officer very cleverly tears away one of the page from the passport. When the passenger leaves the immigration counter, the case is reported on his computer terminal with full details. Now all over India they have got full details of the passenger with Red Flag flashing on the Passport number entered by the departure immigration officer. They have made their money by doing above. On arrival next time, he is interrogated. Subject to the passenger's period of stay abroad, his income and standing etc., the price to get rid of the problem is settled by the Police and Immigration people. If someone argues, his future is spoiled because there are always some innocent fellows who think the honesty is the basis of getting justice in India ..
Please advise every passenger to be careful at the airport. Whenever they hand over the passport to the counters of Air India , or immigration or the customs, they must be vigilant, should not remove eyes from the passport even if the officer in front tries to divert their attention. Also, please pass this information to all friends, media men and important politicians. Every month 20-30 cases are happening all over India to rob the NRIs the minute he lands. Similar case has happened with Aramco's Arifuddin. He was travelling with his family. They had six passports. They got the visa of America and decided to go via Hyderabad from Jeddah. They reached Hyderabad. Stayed about a month and left for the States. When they reached the States, the page of the American visa on his wife's passport
was missing. At the time of departure from Hyderabad it was there, the whole family had to return to Hyderabad helplessly. On arrival at Bombay back, they were caught by the police and now it is over 2 months, they are running after the Police, Immigration officers and the Courts. On going in to details with him, he found out the following: One cannot imagine, neither can believe, that the Indian Immigration dept can play such a nasty game to harass the innocent passengers.
All the passengers travelling to & fro India via Bombay and Hyderabad must be aware of this conspiracy. Every month 15 to 20 cases are taking place, at each mentioned airport, of holding the passengers in the crime of tearing away the passport pages. On interviewing some of them, none of them was aware of what had happened. They don't know why, when and who tore away the page from the middle of the passport. One can imagine the sufferings of such people at the hands of the immigration, police and the court procedures in India after that. The number of cases is increasing in the last 2-3 years. People who are arriving at the immigration, they are questioned and their passports are being held and they have to go in interrogations. Obviously, the conspiracy started about 2 to 3 years ago, now the results are coming. Some of the Air India counter staff too is involved in this conspiracy.
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bostonian28
05-16 11:35 AM
I have just called all the Representatives mentioned in the above thread and conveyed the message. Similar experience, nice people (I am sure they are supposed to be nice, as they would take calls from voters!!), I also heard similar responses saying they have been getting many calls.
more...
jatinr
08-17 10:12 PM
And you will there with your friend...//wink.. correct.
USCIS will accept any applicaiton filed at a wrong service center uptil Aug 29th. If an applicant has not filed a form as per the direct filing instructions that became effective July 30th, still USCIS will accept any application filed at wrong locaiton as per their press release for direct filing that came sometime in June.
USCIS will accept any applicaiton filed at a wrong service center uptil Aug 29th. If an applicant has not filed a form as per the direct filing instructions that became effective July 30th, still USCIS will accept any application filed at wrong locaiton as per their press release for direct filing that came sometime in June.
hair ＂Slam Dunk＂ comic figure of
manand24
10-22 09:34 AM
See Signature
more...
cox
April 3rd, 2005, 04:39 PM
Okay, I got so much helpful advice on the last one, try this shot!
I was heading into yosemite just before sunrise and caught the pre-dawn light over Half Dome. But your eye is able to discern a different dynamic range depending on where you focus, so the picture looks different than I saw the scene. For example, the sky is bright and fiery, but I have lost almost all contrast on the mountain itself. Is that a problem from a photgraphic viewpoint? I'm pretty sure it must be, but maybe it's pleasing enough as is, or you all can advise me on some post-processing to spiff it up. All help appreciated :)
http://www.dphoto.us/forumphotos/data/931/medium/Sunrise_over_Half-Dome_04-01-05_C.jpg (javascript:;)
I was heading into yosemite just before sunrise and caught the pre-dawn light over Half Dome. But your eye is able to discern a different dynamic range depending on where you focus, so the picture looks different than I saw the scene. For example, the sky is bright and fiery, but I have lost almost all contrast on the mountain itself. Is that a problem from a photgraphic viewpoint? I'm pretty sure it must be, but maybe it's pleasing enough as is, or you all can advise me on some post-processing to spiff it up. All help appreciated :)
http://www.dphoto.us/forumphotos/data/931/medium/Sunrise_over_Half-Dome_04-01-05_C.jpg (javascript:;)
hot Slam Dunk Contest
lecter
January 6th, 2005, 09:05 PM
I see what your getting at...... yep... I do like that too.... still have a lot to learn :D
It was a quick and dirty, you can select a colour and then mask and feather it so there's no halo's around the edges, blah blah...
there's heaps of excellent PS books around....
indulge yourself...
Scott Kelby is a good start....
Rob
It was a quick and dirty, you can select a colour and then mask and feather it so there's no halo's around the edges, blah blah...
there's heaps of excellent PS books around....
indulge yourself...
Scott Kelby is a good start....
Rob
more...
house Lebron James slam dunk,
shirish
08-30 11:52 AM
How do you call USCIS? I mean what options did you select to talk to some one. Looks like their options are changed.
I called USCIS today and they said they are using the receipt date on I797 and not on the website. Yes that is right on website they show ND and say receipt date..its all messed up, but as per totay's call, it seems 797 RD is what they are using.
I called USCIS today and they said they are using the receipt date on I797 and not on the website. Yes that is right on website they show ND and say receipt date..its all messed up, but as per totay's call, it seems 797 RD is what they are using.
tattoo Slam Dunk wallpapers.
alkg
08-13 08:41 PM
see the paragraph in bold letters.................
Greenspan Sees Bottom
In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
August 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
"Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
"Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
"It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Greenspan Sees Bottom
In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
August 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
"Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
"Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
"It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
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vikki76
09-01 02:04 AM
I was just about to post this article and then saw someone already did this good deed. Apart from core issue of isolation of elderly immigration,this debate between unrestricted family based GC and employment quota will never end.
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mallu
10-01 12:39 PM
.....Currently the FBI name check system is a bonanza for a criminal. He/She will have 2 - 3 years to commit the crime, before the FBI catches up with him/her.
.....
They are not dumb , they might be already keeping a watch on you while on soil.
.....
They are not dumb , they might be already keeping a watch on you while on soil.
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snaidu
05-29 04:11 PM
AVS channel has an indian program every saturday starting 10am -12.00pm
I am sure many indians watch this.There is also 'free' immigration advise by some lawyers at the end of the program.
If some one has contacts at AVS may be IV could get more coverage.
Thinking out loud..
I am sure many indians watch this.There is also 'free' immigration advise by some lawyers at the end of the program.
If some one has contacts at AVS may be IV could get more coverage.
Thinking out loud..
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srinivas_o
01-08 12:37 PM
Thanks a lot to everybody whoever answered my questions.
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hsm2007
09-20 07:28 PM
Hi Guys,
I am in tough spot. I was laid off from my GC sponsoring employer (A) in 2008 and joined another employer B . I did not do a AC21 notification. My dates are current and now I received an RFE to provide employment letter from current employer. The exact words of RFE are as follows:
"Submit a letter of employment attesting to applicant's current employment. This letter should be written on the company's official letterhead, citing the date the applicant began working, if a permanent full time position, the position offered, the position the applicant is currently working and the salary offered. Include corroborating evidence such as recent pay stubs, income tax returns, with all W2s or other evidence as appropriate. "
Now I am not working for original GC employer. I don't have a problem providing above from my current employer B. But whether the EVL should also mention that I am not working for GC sponsoring employer and that my current employers job profile is in same classification as previous based on AC21. Do I mention about the AC21 also in the letter? My current employer's attorneys are not that great but my current employer only wants me to use their own attorney.
Now here is the situation:
I have a job offer from another employer (Employer C) and they are in the middle of doing a H-1 transfer. In fact by tomorrow they will file the H1 paperwork. Now I don't know whether I should provide the letter from my potential new employer C . In that case, I won't be able to provide W2 or pay stubs until I join them. I have an opportunity to use my own attorney here (like murthy, Ron Gothcer..)
OR
should I provide a letter from my current employer using their attorneys and whether or not I should mention about AC21 in the employment letter.
Thanks.
I am in tough spot. I was laid off from my GC sponsoring employer (A) in 2008 and joined another employer B . I did not do a AC21 notification. My dates are current and now I received an RFE to provide employment letter from current employer. The exact words of RFE are as follows:
"Submit a letter of employment attesting to applicant's current employment. This letter should be written on the company's official letterhead, citing the date the applicant began working, if a permanent full time position, the position offered, the position the applicant is currently working and the salary offered. Include corroborating evidence such as recent pay stubs, income tax returns, with all W2s or other evidence as appropriate. "
Now I am not working for original GC employer. I don't have a problem providing above from my current employer B. But whether the EVL should also mention that I am not working for GC sponsoring employer and that my current employers job profile is in same classification as previous based on AC21. Do I mention about the AC21 also in the letter? My current employer's attorneys are not that great but my current employer only wants me to use their own attorney.
Now here is the situation:
I have a job offer from another employer (Employer C) and they are in the middle of doing a H-1 transfer. In fact by tomorrow they will file the H1 paperwork. Now I don't know whether I should provide the letter from my potential new employer C . In that case, I won't be able to provide W2 or pay stubs until I join them. I have an opportunity to use my own attorney here (like murthy, Ron Gothcer..)
OR
should I provide a letter from my current employer using their attorneys and whether or not I should mention about AC21 in the employment letter.
Thanks.
freddyCR
January 4th, 2005, 07:35 PM
Found this picture waiting for me in the poor side of town.
Comments appreciated
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Comments appreciated
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purgan
08-15 12:41 PM
I filed in last week of June but have still not issued receipts. There are many like me. At the same time, some July 2 filers have receipts.
The explantion for this is that USCIS does not stricly follow first in, first out. They continue to process applications and issue receipt notices haphazardly, that is why some early filers have not recieved RNs while some later filers have. This has created a lot of confusion and anxiety.
The only thing that can help us is a legislative fix. Please help IV help ourselves!
The explantion for this is that USCIS does not stricly follow first in, first out. They continue to process applications and issue receipt notices haphazardly, that is why some early filers have not recieved RNs while some later filers have. This has created a lot of confusion and anxiety.
The only thing that can help us is a legislative fix. Please help IV help ourselves!
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